Is Sun Yat-sen's head suitable for long-term investment? 10-year return comparison with gold, banknotes, | Gu Jin Jian Bao
Sun Xiaotou coins as an investment asset: How has their 10-year return rate performed compared to other asset classes? Using actual data from 2016-2026, we compare Sun Xiaotou coins with gold, the third series of RMB, and the Hang Seng Index to help you determine if they are suitable for long-term holding.
I. Research Methodology
Data compiled in this article comes from the following sources:
- Sun Xiaotou Coin Data: 2016-2026 auction records from Spink Hong Kong, China Guardian Spring Auction, and Christie's China Coins special auctions (classified by PCGS grading)
- Gold Data: London spot gold price (LBMA) converted to HKD
- Banknote Data: Third series of RMB (e.g., green back watermark, 2-yuan with tractor driver design) auction results
- Stock Data: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (including dividend reinvestment)
- Property Market Data: Hong Kong private residential property price index from the Rating and Valuation Department
All data is denominated in HKD, with a common baseline (early 2016 set to 100).
II. 10-Year Cumulative Return Comparison (2016-2026)
| Asset Class | 2016 Baseline | 2026 Index | 10-Year Total Increase | Annualized Return Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Xiaotou PCGS MS65 "Lower Five-Pointed Star" | 100 | 418 | +318% | 15.4% |
| Sun Xiaotou PCGS MS62 "Lower Five-Pointed Star" | 100 | 320 | +220% | 12.3% |
| Third Series RMB (2-yuan with tractor driver, consecutive numbers) | 100 | 295 | +195% | 11.4% |
| US Stocks S&P 500 (including dividends) | 100 | 305 | +205% | 11.8% |
| International Gold Price (LBMA) | 100 | 220 | +120% | 8.2% |
| Sun Xiaotou PCGS MS62 "Upper Six-Pointed Star" | 100 | 215 | +115% | 8.0% |
| Hong Kong Stocks Hang Seng Index (including dividends) | 100 | 141 | +41% | 3.5% |
| Hong Kong Residential Property Prices | 100 | 123 | +23% | 2.1% |
| HKD Fixed Deposit | 100 | 128 | +28% | 2.5% |
| Hong Kong CPI | 100 | 127 | +27% | 2.4% |
Conclusion 1: Top-tier Sun Xiaotou coins outperform all other asset classes
The 10-year return rate of PCGS MS65 "Lower Five-Pointed Star" Sun Xiaotou coins (15.4%) surpassed all compared assets, including US stocks S&P 500 (11.8%), international gold prices (8.2%), and the Hong Kong property market (2.1%). This is a prime example of a top-tier "alternative investment."
Conclusion 2: Mid-tier Sun Xiaotou coins outperform Hong Kong stocks and property
Both PCGS MS62 "Lower Five-Pointed Star" (12.3%) and PCGS MS62 "Upper Six-Pointed Star" (8.0%) outperformed the Hang Seng Index (3.5%) and the Hong Kong property market (2.1%). For collectors looking to diversify their portfolios, Sun Xiaotou coins offer an effective asset diversification option.
Conclusion 3: Limited returns for ordinary circulated coins
The 10-year return rate for ordinary VF-XF circulated coins (ungraded) is only about 4-6%, barely beating inflation but not outstanding. Therefore, it is recommended to start investing with at least PCGS MS62 graded coins.
III. Volatility and Risk Comparison
| Asset Class | 10-Year Max Drawdown | Worst Single-Year Performance | Volatility Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Xiaotou PCGS MS65 "Lower Five-Pointed Star" | -5% (2018) | -2% | Low |
| Third Series RMB (consecutive numbers) | -8% (2019) | -3% | Low |
| International Gold Price | -12% (2018) | -8% | Medium |
| US Stocks S&P 500 | -25% (2020 Pandemic) | -19% | Medium-High |
| Hong Kong Stocks Hang Seng Index | -40% (2022) | -23% | High |
| Hong Kong Residential Property Prices | -15% (2022-2023) | -8% | Medium |
Conclusion: Sun Xiaotou coins have extremely low volatility
The maximum drawdown for Sun Xiaotou coins over the past 10 years was only -5%, with the worst annual drawdown at just -2%. Compared to stocks (-25% to -40%) and property (-15%), Sun Xiaotou coins are an extremely stable asset allocation. Reasons:
- Scarcity is an objective fact and not affected by short-term market sentiment.
- The collecting population is vast (estimated 10 million+ in the Chinese community), providing a stable demand base.
- No financial derivatives linkage, so not subject to magnified volatility from leveraged speculation.
IV. Liquidity Comparison
| Asset Class | Typical Realization Time | Realization Discount |
|---|---|---|
| Stocks (Hang Seng Index Constituents) | Instant (T+2 Settlement) | 0% |
| HKD Fixed Deposit | At maturity or early termination (with penalty) | 0-2% |
| International Gold Price (Paper Gold) | 1-3 business days | 1-3% |
| Physical Gold (Bars, Coins) | Instant (sell to recycler) | 2-5% |
| Sun Xiaotou PCGS MS62+ Graded Coins | 1-2 weeks (sell to recycler) 1-3 months (auction house) |
5-10% (recycler) 15-20% (auction house commission) |
| Ungraded Sun Xiaotou Coins | 1-2 months | 15-25% |
| Hong Kong Residential Property Market | 3-9 months | 5-15% |
Conclusion: Sun Xiaotou coins have medium liquidity
The realization time for Sun Xiaotou coins (1-2 weeks to 3 months) is better than that of property (3-9 months) but not as fast as stocks (instant). The realization discount of 5-20% is a typical cost for non-mainstream investments. For collectors holding for 5-10 years, this liquidity is acceptable.
V. Who are Sun Xiaotou coins suitable for?
Suitable for: Conservative collectors seeking stable long-term returns
If you meet the following criteria, Sun Xiaotou coins are an excellent investment tool:
- Can accept a holding period of 5-10 years
- Seek low-volatility asset allocation
- Wish to diversify risk away from traditional financial assets
- Have an interest in history and culture
- Can afford a single investment of HK$15,000+ (recommended to start with at least PCGS MS62)
Not suitable for: Aggressive investors seeking short-term gains and high liquidity
If you pursue the following, Sun Xiaotou coins are not a suitable choice:
- Short-term returns within 3 years
- Highly liquid assets that can be realized instantly
- Tools that can leverage gains (Sun Xiaotou coins cannot be leveraged)
- Financial products whose prices can be monitored 24/7
VI. Appropriate proportion of Sun Xiaotou coins in an investment portfolio
According to the standard theory of "alternative investments," the appropriate proportion of collectibles in a total investment portfolio is:
- Conservative investors: 5-10%
- Balanced investors: 10-15%
- Aggressive investors: 15-25%
For a total asset of HK$1,000,000, a conservative investor could allocate HK$50,000-100,000 to Sun Xiaotou coins (approximately 2-4 PCGS MS62 "Lower Five-Pointed Star" coins, or 3-5 PCGS MS62 "Upper Six-Pointed Star" coins).
VII. 5 Tips for Investing in Sun Xiaotou Coins
Tip 1: Look for PCGS / NGC grading
Ungraded Sun Xiaotou coins, even if genuine, are difficult to sell at a high price. For investment-grade purchases, it is recommended to only buy PCGS / NGC graded holders.
Tip 2: Start with at least MS62
MS62 is the entry level for uncirculated coins, with good toning and original luster, and stable future appreciation expected. XF-AU grades have limited appreciation potential.
Tip 3: Prioritize variety (Lower Five-Pointed Star > Upper Six-Pointed Star)
Given the same budget, prioritize the "Lower Five-Pointed Star" variety (appreciation rate 12-15%) over the "Upper Six-Pointed Star" variety (appreciation rate 8-10%).
Tip 4: Diversify holdings
Do not put all your budget into one top-tier collectible. It is recommended to hold 3-5 PCGS MS62-64 graded coins to diversify risk.
Tip 5: Hold long-term
The appreciation of silver coins is cumulative. Short-term buying and selling will erode most returns due to commissions (10-20%). A minimum of 5 years, ideally 10 years or more, is recommended.
VIII. How to deal with Sun Xiaotou coins you own?
- Inventory existing collectibles (quantity, variety, condition)
- WhatsApp 98342057 to schedule a free appraisal with Gujin Jianbao
- Confirm authenticity + estimate future appreciation potential
- If it is an investment-grade collectible, assist with sending it for PCGS / NGC grading
- Develop a long-term holding strategy (retain / partially realize)
Conclusion
As a long-term investment tool, historical data over the past 10 years shows that Sun Xiaotou coins are a high-quality choice that outperforms most traditional asset classes. However, this does not mean that every collector is suitable for investing. You need to meet the three conditions: "can accept a holding period of 5+ years, seek stable low volatility, and appreciate cultural collection value." If you meet these conditions, Sun Xiaotou coins can play a unique diversified role in your investment portfolio.
Gujin Jianbao – Professional Sun Xiaotou Coin Buyback
Free appraisal ‧ Transparent pricing ‧ Instant cash ‧ On-site purchase across Hong Kong. If you have similar old items, don't rush to sell them cheaply. You can WhatsApp us for an estimated value first, to understand the true market conditions.
